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The discrete graphics market is still not on the buyer side.

In the third quarter of last year, the global discrete graphics card shipments were only 14 million units, a sharp drop of 42% year-on-year, the lowest record in 20 years.

The market leader Nvidia’s stock price plummeted by 60%, AMD’s market share hit a new low in decades, and the new player in the industry, Intel, took advantage of the chaos to quickly occupy 4% of the market share. Look for breakthrough opportunities.

The steady retreat of manufacturers is accompanied by the wailing of the consumer market, and users are still waving banknotes in their hands, but they are not interested in the selection day after day. Manufacturers who have fallen into the trough intend to control the field, and the new “dessert card” has been absent.

It’s hard to buy if you have money, and if you have a market, you won’t sell it for the time being. Why is the independent graphics card market showing such a strange situation?

The angel of computing power went out of the mine, and Nvidia turned a blind eye twice

Last year, Nvidia founder Huang Renxun ushered in another peak of public opinion. The title of “Old Huang” was associated with many animals in the mouths of PC users.

This kind of abuse began with mining, but it did not stop with mining accidents.

As the core of computing power, discrete graphics cards should have entered thousands of households and become “angels” to deliver happiness to the majority of users, but they were sent to mines.

In particular, mid-to-high-end graphics cards above 60 models have become the first choice of mine owners due to the increase in the overall mining rate brought about by strong computing power. In reality, miners still have shift shifts, and the discrete graphics cards entering the mine can only work at full capacity 24 hours a day, all year round. Even “angels” have already changed beyond recognition.

With the boom in mines, mine owners have gradually become the main buyers, the mid-to-high-end independent market has experienced a strong run, and the number of products flowing to ordinary users has dropped sharply, followed by a wave of hype. The vast number of ordinary users who have difficulty picking up the goods either put the bills waving in their hands back into their trouser pockets, or smash them out with tears in their eyes, and take them at a high position.

Since the actual performance of AMD’s graphics cards of the same generation is slightly different from that of Nvidia, the number of users and the hype run are not like the N-card market. The anger and helplessness of the status quo.

The first wave of cursing against Huang Renxun broke out. The mining boom is booming, and the overall shipments of Nvidia’s discrete graphics cards have not changed much, and the market continues to be frenzied, perhaps because of the wholesale sales and the invalidation of the mining warranty. This kind of “worry-free” after-sales sales is really easy.

Anyway, it’s all for sale, so there’s nothing wrong with saving worry and effort, and there’s “no problem” with the business logic.

As the cryptocurrency market is empty, the mining boom has turned into a mining disaster. A large number of computing power angels have walked out of the mine, their bodies have long been dilapidated, but as long as they are alive, they still need to exert their value.

It is not surprising that second-hand channels have become the hardest-hit areas for mining trucks, and it is surprising that some official channels have also become digestion sites for mining trucks.

Some brands that have been absent for a long time with related models of graphics cards are quickly available after the mining accident. The possibility of overlapping supply nodes and mining disasters cannot be ruled out, but how low the possibility is can be seen from the relevant data in the third quarter of last year, and the consumer market has already given a judgment.

Users are only gambling when they turn to the second-hand market. The ragged angels with broken wings were replaced with new clothes, and the extremely rare individual buyers were overwhelmed by a large number of refurbished mining card sellers. Users who want to buy a non-mining graphics card are tantamount to “pointing autumn fragrance”, and no one is Tang Bohu , Most users can only fall into the torment of “die after the addiction” and waiting for new products.

And Nvidia 40 series graphics cards are available, still choose to turn a blind eye to the status quo. The starting models are 90 and 80. Nvidia, which has no brand rush demand at all, just launched flagship models that are not urgently needed by the market. The order of new launches is from high to low, which obviously cannot completely fill the market gap between supply and demand.

Taking advantage of the buyer’s backlog of anxiety, perhaps the flagship model that costs tens of thousands of yuan has the imagination to increase sales, and the business model is still “no problem”.

The expectations of ordinary users have failed again, and there are countless abuses against Huang Renxun on the Internet. There is still room for improvement in AMD’s actual performance, while Intel is temporarily stuck in the mid-to-low end, and users are helpless under the absolute dominance of Nvidia’s over 80% market share.

The global independent graphics card market is in a downturn. Nvidia obviously wants to grab as much profit as possible through the high premium of its flagship products. Even if the C-end market is difficult to recover for a while, the B-end is enough to survive, and the dominant advantage of one company is difficult to be shaken for a while.

B-side expands territory, C-side tells stories

Perhaps in Nvidia’s view, gamers are no longer the main customers, but productivity is.

In Q3 last year, Nvidia’s revenue reached US$5.93 billion, a 17% drop from Q2. Nevertheless, under the background of pressure on the C-end, Nvidia is far better than AMD, whose market share has dropped to more than 10%, and its B-end advantage has long been far behind its opponents.

Ninety percent of the world’s top 500 supercomputers use Nvidia products, and the world’s four major cloud service platforms, Nvidia accelerator cards also occupy the largest market share. As its latest GPUs gain widespread adoption and Omniverse raises the bar for visualization for computing power, Nvidia has new stories to tell.

Nvidia’s AI program, after crazy expansion in recent years, is firmly bound to industry leaders such as Microsoft, Google, Alibaba, Oracle, Amazon, etc. Labs, data centers, cloud services and other fields have been surrounded by Nvidia.

The leading edge of AI technology is enough to make it achieve the effect that the C end is not bright and the B end is bright in the market.

In Q3 last year, Nvidia’s data center-related revenue reached US$3.83 billion, about 64% of total revenue. The well-known game business revenue is 1.57 billion US dollars, which is only about 26% of the total revenue. It is worth noting that the game business continued to slump, with revenue down 51% year-on-year and 23% quarter-on-quarter.

The former main revenue force has become the weak side of revenue, and the steady decline of the game business still drags down Nvidia’s overall revenue and affects the stock price rebound. Telling a new story well may be more effective than waiting for the market to pick up.

At the CES 2023 event earlier this month, Nvidia announced that the GeForce NOW cloud gaming platform will be launched on the car. The first supported car manufacturers are Hyundai, BYD, and Polestar, based on its Drive hardware models.

Traditional car companies are likely to be Nvidia’s main focus in the early stage. Its user base is huge and there are obvious shortcomings in gaming and entertainment. In the field of game boarding, Nvidia can produce mature software and hardware, which is difficult for the soft Steam, hard AMD, and Qualcomm to match for a while. In the game competition among car companies, Nvidia has no decent opponent for the time being.

The core factor to achieve this step is to match the needs of car dealers.

Autonomous driving has triggered a battle for computing power. Nvidia has entered the market with the advantage of AI soft power, which can also be seen as the technology accumulation of the B-side boosting the efficiency of the C-side to break through. From Orin to Thor, the computing power of a single chip has reached the world’s leading 2000TOPS, and Qualcomm 8155 has no power to fight back.

From 2015 to now, Nvidia’s motivation to get on the car can be regarded as hardware pre-embedding, and now the software will be closed to the network.

Although the revenue related to automotive and embedded technology is temporarily US$251 million, it has increased by 86% year-on-year and 14% month-on-month. In the cycle of “embedded network collection”, the business revenue of this sector will likely Rapid qualitative changes, and the game business that is strongly related to it will also be positively stimulated.

Whether it can reproduce the glory of the data center is still unknown, but right now in the automotive field, Nvidia is replicating a dominant situation.

Rescuing the C-side from the B-side and using the weak side as a breakthrough point, Nvidia obviously pins its hopes on the new story line, and the consumer-grade discrete graphics card market has long been less valued than before.

Multi-terminal games have gradually become mainstream, and fragmented time has taken over entertainment. Nvidia, whose business model has always been “no problem”, focuses on seeing business opportunities from timing.

Dessert cards aren’t Nvidia’s “desserts”

The sales volume of the 90 series exceeded 130,000 yuan, and the sales volume of the 80 series also reached 30,000 yuan before and after its launch. Since then, the high price has caused its sales growth to slow down.

The launch of 4070 seems to be the familiar rhythm of Nvidia. It is a low level of “flying” for a while, but it does not take out the long-awaited 4060. Most ordinary players still have to wait to get out of the shadow of the mining card. For Nvidia, the next step must be to release the dessert card, but the time can be more slow.

Nvidia knows what the 60 model means to users, and it is more aware of its own product advantages.

As the chip manufacturing process is approaching 1nm, Moore’s Law is facing failure, and the independent display market needs a new story. It doesn’t matter whether ray tracing and DLLS are pseudo-demand or not. The important thing is to successfully open the door to users, so that Nvidia can continue to increase the price of independent display. The novelty of users may disappear, but the price that has been raised for two generations will obviously not return to the past.

The 60-series graphics card has been exposed to another 10% price increase on the basis of the previous generation. Compared with the previous generation, the theoretical performance has only increased by 20%. Netizens are roughly divided into two arguments, one is “true fragrance” and the other is “squeezing toothpaste”.

It is not difficult to understand that for independent display users who are stumbled by mining cards and controlled by Nvidia, the price increase of the new generation of dessert cards can be accepted as long as it is not outrageous; and in the period when buyers and sellers are caught in a game, the world’s largest The independent display model has changed from 1060 to 1650, and this part of users calmly stays out of the matter.

It is obviously time-consuming and labor-intensive to reverse user sentiment. It is more practical to grab as high a profit as possible at every node from high to low for new products.

The ban on game consoles has been lifted, and many masterpieces still have the habit of being exclusive. A group of experienced players who were taken away by the host once again experienced the joy of cost-effectiveness after the price of graphics cards skyrocketed. With Sony’s strong content and Microsoft’s “money” ability to subsidize XGP continues, Nvidia may gradually realize that it is difficult for the independent display market to regain its former glory.

Moreover, AMD and Intel are still catching up in the independent display market, and Nvidia still has the ability to control the market. The auto-related business will undoubtedly become its next incremental market. Even if the GPU can really get on the car after the independent display, Nvidia can copy and paste the existing advantages.

Currently, Nvidia does not follow the cooperation model of Tesla and AMD, but uses cloud games to enter its established path of hardware embedding, which has exclusive advantages in terms of coverage and user threshold. And temporarily throwing off Qualcomm in the battle of computing power, its software and hardware will further gain wider adoption.

The stock price has stopped falling, the new story is magnificent and exciting, the dawn of manufacturers is just around the corner, and the darkest moment for independent display users is still continuing.

This article comes from the WeChat public account:Photon Planet (ID: TMTweb)Author: Xiong Xing

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