Toyota uses mathematics to prove that pure electric cars are not environmentally friendly, and it is better to take a multi-pronged approach
Toyota is amazing again!
The company’s chief scientist made a public statement:Pure trams are not environmentally friendly.
According to his argument, with limited resources,hybrid carmore efficient than electric carslower carbon dioxide emissionsto achieve carbon neutrality.
And Toyota is being criticized by various parties because of the slow progress of pure electric vehicles. It sounds like it is justifying itself when it comes out?
Akio Toyoda, who hates pure electric vehicles, announced his retreat to the second line of Toyota. He thought that “the new official took office as the top three fires”, and Koji Sato, who has a background in hybrid technology, can bring some changes to Toyota.
Toyota is also a well-known enterprise that “grasps all three hands” of hydrogen-powered, hybrid, and pure electric vehicles.
But according to this public statement, it seems that Toyota will probably continue to go dark on this road…
Toyota: Achieving carbon neutrality requires a multi-pronged approach
At the recent World Economic Forum in Davos, Toyota Chief ScientistJill Pratt(Gill Pratt) mentioned the current shortage of lithium supply and made the following argument:
Suppose there is a fleet with 100 carsif these vehicles are fuel vehicles, then the average carbon dioxide emission is 250g/km.
That is, when these cars travel one kilometer, they will discharge 250g carbon dioxide.
And because lithium is limited, if these lithium can only make one 100kWh of batteries, then the fleet becomes 1 electric carand 99 gasoline vehicles.
And these cars travel one kilometer, will discharge 248.5g carbon dioxide.
But if you use this lithium to make 1.1kWh batteries, producing hybrids, the fleet is 90 hybrid carsand 10 fuel cars.
These cars travel one kilometer, and the carbon dioxide emission can be reduced to 205g.
Therefore, Toyota believes that it is not enough to develop pure electric vehicles to achieve carbon neutrality, at least from a scientific point of view.
According to other forecast data, Toyota believes that until 2040, the demand for lithium will continue to exceed the supply of lithium, and the supply may even account for only 1% of the total demand.one third.
After all, opening a new battery manufacturing plant requires onlytwo to three yearswhile digging a new mine requires 16 years.
Pratt also citesAmara’s law(Amara’s Law): People always overestimate the short-term benefits of a technology and underestimate its long-term impact.
He said that people’s enthusiasm for pure electric vehicles today is like yesterday’s confidence in autonomous driving,too optimistic.
“Lithium shortages and a lack of charging infrastructure will inevitably create bottlenecks that prevent the mass rollout of pure electric vehicles over the next decade. These shortages will make it very clear that developing one way won’t work for everyone, and the best answer is A mix of different types of vehicles.”
And besides lithium, there are shortages of many other metals needed for batteries, such as nickel and manganese.
Shortages of these raw materials will drive up EV prices, Platt said, and higher sticker prices could make people less willing to buy them.
It is not environmentally friendly to only develop pure electricity. It is better to take a multi-pronged approach. Toyota is going to continue to be “obsessed” in the transformation of new energy…
What route is Toyota betting on?
As we all know, Toyota is taking the lead in the transformation of new energy“Supermarket”The route, wants to provide consumers with a complete product series, including hydrogen, hybrid and pure electric vehicles, but from the perspective of actual investment, Toyota does not treat these three types of power equally.
Toyota was first 1992It has been more than 30 years since the development of hydrogen fuel cells.
During this period, a number of concept models were launched, and hydrogen fuel buses were provided for the Japan World Expo. By 2014, the first mass-produced hydrogen fuel-powered vehicles were launched. Mirai(future), and also the world’s first truly commercialized hydrogen fuel-powered vehicle.
Toyota also deployed hybrid power very early,1997Introduced the first-generation Toyota Hybrid System (THS), the same year ToyotaPriusLaunched on the market, it is the world’s first mass-produced hybrid car. 100,000 vehicles.
Later, Toyota continued to develop hybrid models and launched a variety of hybrid models such as the Camry, Corolla, and a new generation of Prius. The hybrid technology has also been continuously updated and developed, and it has become popular all over the world.
Therefore, a saying was born: “There are only two hybrids in the world, one is Toyota and the other is other hybrids.”
Toyota’s new CEO Koji Satoand has also been deeply involved in the research and development process of Prius and Corolla.
Compared with Toyota’s hydrogen fuel and hybrid technology, Toyota’s investment in pure electric technology is not large.plus the former headAkio ToyodaIt is no wonder that Toyota’s first pure electric car, the bZ4X, will not come out until 2022.
but due totires may come offtwo months after Toyota launched the bZ4X abroadrecallall vehicles.
In China, bZ4X has also experienced a “secondary listing”. It is said that because the test found that the vehicle could not be charged in severe cold weather, the conference originally scheduled for June was postponed until October.
In terms of sales volume, Toyota bZ4X sold in China last year 1166 vehiclessold in the US 1220 vehicles; Hydrogen fuel car Mirai has been sold since its launch More than 20,000vehicles, while the cumulative sales of Toyota hybrid vehicles have exceeded 20000000.
From this point of view, hybrid technology seems to have become Toyota’s last “fig leaf”.
Will Toyota reform?
As critics expressed dissatisfaction with Toyota’s delay in pure electric vehicles, they criticized Toyota.scienceAngle retorts.
Not long ago, Toyota changed coaches, and Akio Toyoda, who hated pure electric vehicles, retreated to the second line. Koji Sato, who once led Lexus’s first pure electric vehicle, took the lead.
At that time, we felt that at least Koji Sato had an open attitude towards the transformation of new energy sources, and we looked forward to his drastic reforms to Toyota.
But according to this public statement, Toyota’s reform may be suspended…
Toyota has also taken a positive stand.
For example, it will be released in one breath in January 2022 16 Electric Vehiclesin addition to the concept car, there are also a variety of models of the bZ brand and Lexus, trying to show its ambition with the “car sea tactic”, and also announced that it will invest in the field of new energy $80+ billion.
But by October 2022, presumably due to the loss of the bZ4X’s first battle, there is news that Toyota is consideringRebooting the electric vehicle strategyand halted some existing EV projects.
And the interior of Toyota seems to be in chaos, first the classic sports car AE86 Introduced hydrogen-powered and pure electric versions, recently saidHighlanderThere will also be a pure electric version, likesell brandinstead ofsell products.
The path of Toyota’s transformation seems a bit hasty.
What’s more, in the wave of new energy transformation, in addition to the competition in power technology, there are alsointelligentcompetition.
As the first shot of Toyota’s transformation, the bZ4X only supports the basic L2 assisted driving.
Toyota set a goal in 2021 to launch a new car by 2030 30 modelsPure electric vehicles, and the annual sales of pure electric and fuel cell vehicles must reach 3.5 million vehicles.
Will this goal be achieved?
This article comes from the WeChat public account:Smart car reference (ID: AI4Auto)Author: There are cars and evidence
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